Storm Day, morning update: Models show lesser but still substantial threat

Peak winds for Seattle have been revised downward to 55-60 mph (from 65-70 mph), i.e. the predicted track is further from us than previously thought. Much uncertainty remains, and the storm remains dangerous.


Here’s a map from NWS showing the expected start times of peak winds (with the older, higher estimates of gust speeds):


Friday morning update, Oct. 14

National Weather Service has issued a high wind advisory for today, Friday, until 6:00 PM:

Timing: Southerly winds will rise again midday today and peak this afternoon or early evening, then ease temporarily tonight. A stronger storm will arrive Saturday evening with high winds likely.

Winds: South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph today, strongest midday through afternoon. Sound winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph are possible Saturday night.

Impacts: There were scattered power outages overnight and more are possible with the winds today. Tree damage is typically greater this early in the season, so keep in mind that falling limbs and trees are an occasional cause of injury and fatality during western Washington windstorms.

National Weather Service has issued an urban flood advisory for the Seattle area today, Friday, until 10:15 AM:

Heavy rainfall this morning has already produced areas of ponding and urban flooding. This is expected to continue through the morning commute. It will impact area Interstates around the Seattle metro area.

Regarding the Saturday storm, there is no change to the forecast. National Weather Service forecast (3:40 AM Friday), says:

As we have been advertising for several days, the remains of Pacific Typhoon Songda will approach Western Washington from the southwest on Saturday, with its surface low possibly bringing a major windstorm to Western Washington late Saturday and Saturday night. … If [our weather model] is about right, then Western Washington — including the greater Seattle metropolitan area — would likely have its most significant windstorm since the Hanukkah Eve storm of December 2006, which left many people without power for several days.

You can read the Wikipedia entry for the Hanukkah Eve storm of 2006.

Stay tuned!

Thursday night update

Scott Sisteck of KOMO says on Twitter at 10:30 PM:

Well, GFS [a weather model] still “Choo Choo, all aboard’ Saturday evening windstorm. Yes that’s a 70-75 mph bullseye over Seattle.

The Seattle Times provides a comprehensive rundown, updated at 9:45 PM:

Meteorologists warn the Seattle region could see its most powerful storm in 10 years on Saturday.

The Times compares what’s coming on Saturday to the Hanukkah Eve storm of 2006, which left more than a million people without power. 

For Friday, the National Weather Service says on Twitter there will be two bursts of high winds, in the early morning and in the afternoon. 

Follow #wawx (WA weather) on Twitter for instant info. 

Saturday storm will be regional emergency

Scott Sistek of KOMO says Saturday storm will bring winds to 65 mph in Seattle. He says it will be like the Hanukkah Eve storm of 2006, though not like the Columbus Day storm of 1962. This will be a regional emergency.

During the Hunukkah Eve storm, 1.2 million people lost power in Seattle. There were 14 deaths and hundreds of millions in damages. See the Wikipedia article:

Prepare for an extended power outage: Collect meds, special needs, pet food, personal necessities. Get a portable, battery-operated radio. Check your flashlights and batteries. Get cash including small bills (ATMs won’t work without power).

On Sunday, if we’re looking at massive power outage, I think I’ll start my block response protocol: Knock on doors, see if anyone needs help. At some point, I’ll wander down to Phinney Center, where I bet folks will be looking for information. This may be a Hub activation, though I’m not sure what that looks like under these conditions.

–David B.

Prepare for an extended power outage

After the 1962 Columbus Day storm, power was out for 17 days in some areas.

Today, a week-long regional power outage would be a life-threatening hazard. Phones and computers would use up their batteries. Communications would be affected. Cash machines would not work. Stores would close.

Collect medications, special needs, pet food, and other personal necessities now. Get cash, including small bills. Check your flashlights and batteries.

If you don’t have a portable, battery-operated radio, get one today. It may be your only source of official news if the power is out for a long time.

#Windpocalypse2016: Special Edition

We’re on low alert for a potentially historic wind storm that may hit Western Washington on Saturday, October 15. (If you have a better name than #Windpocalypse2016, please feel free to suggest it!)

Meteorologist Cliff Mass sounded the alarm yesterday on his blog. He is promising an update today (Tuesday, Oct. 13) after 10:30 AM, when the new weather models have come in.

Here’s a good roundup and forecast from the Seattle Times, posted 8 PM Wednesday.

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